Solid Workers

Where has the weekend of bullying and bluster got Boris Johnson? Saying Tory MPs who vote against the government in the Commons tomorrow will be deselected has, at least at the time of writing, firmed up the Tory refuseniks. Imagine, a Prime Minister who models himself on Winston Churchill drumming his actual grandson out of the party. Not great optics for the history books our vainglorious leader hope to dominate. And now we have the threat of a snap election pencilled in for 14th October if, as Johnson put it outside Downing Street this evening, parliament knocks the legs away from the government's Brexit negotiation strategy. He emphatically said he doesn't want an election, but among his waffle and piffle were laid out rhetorical devices designed to get him off the hook if he calls for one. High stakes and risky moves then, but how likely will fortune favour the knave? Johnson and Tony Blair (yes, him again ) have reckoned now is the best chance for the Tories - which is w...

This month saw 18,446 votes cast over nine local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Two council seats changed hands. For comparison with July's results, see here . Party Number of Candidates Total Vote % +/-  July +/- Aug 18 Avge/ Contest +/- Seats Conservative             9   5,486     29.7%  +2.2%     -3.4%     610     -1 Labour             8   2,951     16.0%  +3.6%    -14.0%     369     -1 LibDem             8   6,218     33.7%   -3.4%     +8.7%     777    +1 UKIP             2     98      0.5%   -1.1% ...

One of the key points this blog has hammered time and again is how the Conservative Party is in long-term decline, and many of its pathologies, from extreme short-termism to the predominance of unprincipled, incompetent chancers are symptoms of a slow burning crisis now coming to a head. I say slow burning because the argument the party is in long-term decline was first ventured by John Ross in his 1983 book, Thatcher and Friends: The Anatomy of the Tory Party . And as might readers know, I'm working on a book on the very same topic. What then does a book a stone's throw from 40 years of age reveal about the Tory party today? Quite a bit as it turns out. The main thrust of John's argument is based on the declining votes of the Tories since their peak in 1931. Prior to then, between 1859 and 1931 the party was in a long term ascendency , and assumed a dominant position from 1886. Of course there were peaks and troughs in both periods, but vote proportions plotted in a grap...

In his best possible universe, Boris Johnson's zipping up and down the country and going hard on no deal would have seen the Tories romp home with barely any effort in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election. Unfortunately for them, their safe seat is now a Liberal Democrat gain and sundry Tories are going to have to spend the day putting a brave face on things. Did no one think about poor James Cleverly before voting? By-elections, as second order elections, see all kinds of things come into play. It is quite normal for voters to register a protest and go against their usual inclinations, or allow local issues to sway their choice. And so by-elections either say very little about the state of national politics, or a great deal. Stunning insight, eh? Brecon and Radnorshire, usefully for the purposes of this write up, is an interesting one. But before we go anywhere, let's deal with some of the silliness put about by the Liberal Democrats on the Labour vote. As folks can see, it...

This month saw 21,830 votes cast over 16 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Six council seats changed hands. For comparison with June's results, see here . Party Number of Candidates Total Vote % +/-  June +/- July 18 Avge/ Contest +/- Seats Conservative            13   6,013     27.5%   -3.6%     -8.7%     401     -4 Labour            15   2,714     12.4%  -11.0%    -19.2%     181     -2 LibDem            13   8,096     37.1% +11.2%    +22.1%     623    +5 UKIP             5    349      1.6%  +0.2%     +0.2%  ...